Support on policy and technological break-through are promoted and grown up

LED is Light Emitting Diode (luminescent diode) Abbreviation,it is a compound semiconductor component, have shiny with high efficiency, environmental protection, advantage longe-lived, small, it is the solid condition that is lighted (SSL) Main technical development route.

According to the production flow, LED trade can be divided into the production of an upstream epitaxial wafer, the chip fabrication of the state of being middling, three parts of downstream chip package, among them, the upper reaches and state of being middling are with high technical advantage, capital input is large in density, it is the most hotly competitive that it is international, business risk maximum field. In the intersection of LED and the intersection of industry and chain, LED epitaxial wafer and chip account for trade 70% profit, LED capsulate account for 10-20%, and LED employs and accounts for 10-20%.

According to the statistical findings of IEK, it is estimated it under the circumstances that every new application grows up continuously in 6,850 million dollars in the global scale of LED industry in 2007, the global L E D output value will reach 12,500 million dollars in 2011, compound growth rate of the trade is 16%. Light among them, car and display unit backlight source of spending market the following five years the intersection of LED and main point of growth of demand, the heavy-duty high light LED chip will be the major application of the future market.

Look from technological aspect, LED industry faces making the difficult problem how to improve the lamplight effect, solve and dispel the heat and lower costs heavy-dutily. The key technical indicator that investors need to pay close attention to includes the power, lamplight effect and heat-dissipating craft. How promote single lamplight effect of chip and at the life time under industry competitive focus concentrate on heavy-duty, at present U.S.A. Cree Company has already researched and developed 161lm/w heavy-duty white light LED, but distance 330lm/w (theoretical value) It is very large to promote the space.

The policy promotes and accelerates LED lighting market ripely: US President bar will pursue the efficient energy policy of environmental protection actively after one at once, ELectroniCast investigation report thinks, the high light LED device will increase in this financial crisis against the tendency, Cree Company 08Q4 camp accepts and increases by 24% compared with the same period of last year, among them the commercial lighting field growth is swift and violent, have already reached cooperation in American Ministry of National Defence, has installed LED lighting device in Pentagon in latest message display Cree. Taiwan of China puts out LED street lamp illumination standard formally in December of 2008; Ministry of Finance, national development and reform committee release ” high-efficient the intersection of lighting and product popularize the finance management temporary means of financial subsidy ” jointly last year, the country takes and replenishes the way and popularizes the high-efficient lighting products, the Ministry of Science and Technology ” ten cities and ten thousand ” indirectly LED street lamp demonstration project has already proposed and begun to implement too, LEDinside was estimated 2010 LED lighting market scale will have reached 700 million dollars.

In the company of the chain upper and middle reaches of the industrying has investment value even more: The unit engaged in LED epitaxy, chip researching and developing and production of China has more than 30 home at present, capsulate about 600 of enterprise, LED employ products and related the intersection of enterprise and up to or 1,700 more than. Three fit photoelectricity and the intersection of person and blue located in industry chain upper and middle reaches a little in the listed company, technology is competent, earning power is strong, the gross margin percentage keeps above 40%, has occupied about 70% of trade profits. Unite the midstream and downstream achieving the photoelectricity and concentrating on the industry chain, the gross margin percentage is lower, all involve with the midstream and downstream on square share and big square A industry chain, but batch productino is minor in scale, the high quality ratio still remains to be seen.

From the viewpoint of estimate value, three the intersection of Ann and photoelectricity have a estimate value advantage even more. By 2.10, a gleam of LED big factory die photoelectricity static PE of Taiwan is 25X, U.S.A. Cree Company static PE is up to 66X. China LED big A square in estimate value most high listed company, dynamic PE up to 50.8 09 year, three fit dynamic PE is 25 09 such as photoelectricity, dynamic PE is 30.9 in blue little 09 to it is estimated persons.

The achievement is predicted and made the investment to grade: Fit the photoelectric big shareholder, promise 09 three times, the net profit is not lower than 122 million yuan and 150 million yuan in 10, it is 0.49 and 0.61 yuan to convert to the earning per share respectively, can not reach and fill in cash. We are expected in the following 2 years their earnings per share will be up to 0.57 and 0.71 yuan, calculated by 2.10 closing prices of 14.2 yuan, answer 09 and PE 25X and 20X respectively 10 year, pay ” hold again ” Investment grade,future goal of the 6 month price 17.1 yuans.

Catalyst that future trade increases comes from the issue of Chinese LED street lamp illumination standard and LED common lighting subsidy policy, LED government procurement and break-through of key technical indicator, propose investor’s positive concern.